Date: 02/14/2019

The preamble is over. Time to batten down the hatches and get the bailing bucket out. Forecast snowfall and associated water numbers are impressive for the next 24 hour period, with a big plume of moisture billowing out of the Pacific. Today, showery snowfall will continue and southwesterly winds should subside slightly above treeline, before ramping up between 4-5pm. Heavy snow and strong southwest winds will continue through the night. Temperatures today will be quite balmy, highs flirting with the freezing mark, before cooling tonight into the low to mid 20s. Okay…probably should throw some numbers out. Expect 12-18″ of new snow in Kebler and Schofield Passes by tomorrow afternoon. 8-12″ closer to Crested Butte, Brush, and Cement Creek areas. Snow will continue through the weekend potentially.…

Date: 02/13/2019

Overnight cloud cover kept low temperatures much warmer than the past few nights. Starting this afternoon will begin a 3 day period of warm and wet weather for the Crested Butte area lasting through about Saturday evening. The moisture looks to come at three intervals with the potential for light snow during the in-between periods. The heaviest hits of snow will come Wednesday night, Thursday night, and Saturday. Flow directions look most favorable for the Thursday night event which is great because it will be packing the most moisture of the three snowy periods. Things are about to get exciting because a good amount of uncertainty remains about snow totals, but the moisture is impressive and flow directions are looking very favorable for the Crested Butte area.…

Date: 02/12/2019

The snowfall from yesterday was a bit disappointing with only 1 to 3″ across the range. Skies are currently clear and will be for the first half of the day, but high clouds will build throughout the day in front of an approaching snow maker. Beginning Wednesday evening expect wet and unsettled weather to impact the area through the weekend. It is too early to start throwing out snow totals for this period, but things are looking pretty good. A significant low-pressure system is sitting out in the Pacific Ocean with a big fetch of moisture and will a bit of luck the ‘fire hose’ will point at the central mountains of Colorado. By tomorrow morning we will be able to start attaching some numbers to this impressive, moisture-rich storm.…

Date: 02/11/2019

The current system showed up a bit late this morning with snowfall just starting to the west of Crested Butte around 4 am. This storm still looks to drop a few inches across the forecast area but snow totals are looking meager with 2 to 5 inches expected. Snowfall looks to taper off by noon today. Tuesday into Wednesday morning is looking dry with the next approaching system arriving on Wednesday night. Expect several days of wet and unsettled weather lasting through the weekend. Meteorologists have been using the “atmospheric river” term for the upcoming stormy period, but they have low confidence as the model runs are not consistent. Keep your fingers crossed that things will line up for the Crested Butte area to get hammered by snow later this week.…

Date: 02/10/2019

Last night a quick moving short-wave passed through the area dropping little more than a few flakes but brought some gusty winds. Today will start out mostly clear with moderate to strong SW winds ahead of the next approaching system. Clouds will be on the increase throughout the day with snow beginning in earnest after midnight as a cold front passes through. There could be up to 5 inches for the snow favored areas to the west and north of town. The snow should finish by the middle of the day on Monday. Starting on Wednesday it looks like an active pattern will set up for the area with the possibility of significant accumulations through the weekend.…

Date: 02/09/2019

Another brisk start to the morning will gradually give way to increasing clouds and ridgetop winds as our next round of snowfall moves across the Great Basin today and should impact our area with light snow around sunset and into the overnight hours across the higher, westerly terrain. 1-4” snow expected with this moisture starved disturbance, however, this system will be quickly followed by a clipping cold front dropping out of the northwest, giving another shot of snow late Sunday, into Monday and an additional 2-4″ look possible.…

Date: 02/08/2019

A transient, fast-moving ridge of high pressure worked drier air into the Elk Mountains overnight and established some frigid inversions once again. Currently, lower elevations are sitting at -10 to -25 and ridgetops are holding tough in the single digits above zero. High pressure will be pushed eastward throughout the day before another round of snow develops late Saturday. Westerly orographics, cold temperatures, and a 100kt jet aloft will increase winds and kick to life more snow, especially across westerly snow favored areas. The unsettled pattern continues into next week, with all models showing more Pacific moisture, but disagreeing on timing and intensity at the moment……

Date: 02/07/2019

The trough axis of yesterdays storm passed to the east of the area last night, but WNW flow has set up with decent moisture which will keep light snow falling in the snow favored locations from Kebler Pass to Schofield Pass. Temperatures are cold this morning and will struggle to make it into double digits today. WNW winds will be on the increase today and will drift the recent snow. Residual moisture on the backside of the last system will dry out by tonight and a weak ridge will build for Friday and Saturday. Do not worry though, another snowy period will begin sometime Saturday night and last into the first part of next week but details of this system are still a bit blurry.…

Date: 02/06/2019

The large scale low-pressure system we have been talking about the past few days is set to arrive today. Widespread snowfall has already begun early this morning. Latest model runs have backed off on total precipitation from yesterday. This still looks to be a productive system with most parts of the forecast area picking up a healthy hit of snow during the day under SW flow and as the trough axis passes overhead, the flow will shift W and NW which will keep the snow production going for the snow favored areas along the spine of the Ruby Range. Snow totals by Thursday morning look to be from 6 to 12 inches. Cold air will slide into place after this system passes on Wednesday night and Thursday. Friday is looking dry at the moment before a quick hitting system on Saturday.…

Date: 02/05/2019

A large low-pressure system is currently near the Nevada/California border and pushing a healthy stream of moisture out it front into the Crested Butte area. This system already has modest snow production going in our neighborhood and will continue to produce light snowfall through the daylight hours on Tuesday. The bulk of the energy arrives late tonight and tomorrow morning with significant accumulations expected through Wednesday night. Snowfall totals are tentatively looking to be around 12+ inches across much of the forecast area with locally higher amounts.…